President Trump's historic summit with Kim Jong-un in Singapore was overshadowed by the turbulent G7 summit in Quebec. America's closest allies are still reeling from the divisive summit, and shortly after it ended, Trump blasted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a series of tweets. This was in response to a press conference held by Trudeau, where he announced retaliatory measures against US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Trump called Trudeau „very dishonest and weak,“ claiming he „acts hurt when challenged,“ which angered Canadians. The Globe and Mail newspaper described Trump's outburst as „one of the most shamelessly staged crises ever perpetrated by an American administration against an ally.“.
As there are no signs of the situation calming down anytime soon, it makes sense to take a brief look at whether Canada in a potential trade war has a bargaining chip. The Canadian government has often highlighted the fact that Canada is the most important trading partner for 35 US states, but nevertheless, there are only two states with which trade accounts for more than 10 percent of economic output. On the other hand, the Canadian provinces have always relied on US trade – 49 percent of GDP of Ontario depend on it. In Alberta it is 31 percent and in Quebec 23 percent.
Nevertheless, the USA could suffer economically in a trade war, and it is quite possible that some states could feel the initial impact on their employment rates. Last year, the website canadianbusiness.com analysed the government figures of both countries to determine how many jobs in the USA, on a state-by-state basis, depend on trade with Canada. The analysis found that approximately 9 million jobs in total depend on cross-border trade, with California (1.66 million), New York (680,900), and Florida (620,000) being the most affected. Even if President Trump continues with his protectionist stance on trade with his key allies, the USA will certainly not be immune to retaliatory measures.
Further infographics can be found at Statista