Last month, a poll revealed that, for the first time, a majority of Americans favour military action against North Korea. Should diplomatic efforts fail, there is no question that the United States possesses the capabilities to successfully strike Pyongyang's nuclear infrastructure. However, a retaliatory strike from North Korea is highly probable, and even if this is by one of the ballistic intercontinental missiles The country's conventional artillery is extremely powerful and also poses a significant threat, which could emerge from the regimes.
Although a large proportion of North Korea's military consists of outdated Soviet equipment from the Cold War era, the Korean People's Army's artillery command has approximately 12,000 tube artillery pieces and a further 2,300 multiple rocket launchers. Some of these systems are capable of hitting Seoul, though it's assumed that the northern outskirts of the city would primarily come under fire in the event of hostilities. Some studies predict the destruction of the South Korean capital in case of war, although it is more likely that some districts would be heavily damaged and the civilian population would suffer casualties.
The initial choice ofTargeting North Korea would prove decisive in any conflict. The regime could choose to attack military targets beyond the DMZ or deliver a hammer blow to South Korea through massive civilian casualties and economic damage. In the latter strategy, the North's artillery pieces would be vulnerable to US and South Korean counter-battery fire or airstrikes.
The following infographic is based on Stratfor investigations and shows how concentrated North Korean artillery fire could be in a new conflict on the peninsula. The scenario takes into account the known and expected positions of North Korean artillery batteries and assumes a situation where all North Korean systems are firing simultaneously and without failures. The border area could be penetrated by North Korean shells, while parts of Seoul and Incheon Airport would also fall within the range of some of Pyongyang's systems.
The 2010 attack on Yeonpyeong Island demonstrated the danger posed by North Korean artillery. During this incident, North Korean shells landed on a South Korean island, killing four people and injuring 19 others. Should the US decide to attack Pyongyang's nuclear facilities, the regime's artillery will in any case ensure that it can play a devastating retaliatory card in a war.
Further infographics can be found at Statista