32 nations will compete against each other in Russia over the next four and a half weeks at the FIFA World Cup, but only one team will fly home as the victor. And though every fan/expert will have an opinion on who will win in the end, a good deal of the game's beauty lies in its unpredictability. Football – at least the kind played in Russia these days – is a notoriously low-scoring game (just ask American sports fans about the thrill of a goalless draw), and therefore, one wrong decision, one lost ball, or one dislocated shoulder can decide the outcome of an entire season or tournament.
To defy the unpredictability of the game, analysts from Goldman Sachs developed a sophisticated statistical model with which they are attempting to predict Germany's successor as world champions. According to their analysis, which is based on 53 different variables including team ratings, player ratings, recent performance and opponents' recent performance, Brazil are the favourites to win the title with an 18.5 percent probability. France are the second most likely winners with an 11.3 percent probability, followed by defending champions Germany (10.7 percent).
As the following graphic shows, the world public disagrees with the statistical model and considers Germany to be the most likely world champion. 23 percent of the approximately 12,000 respondents in a Ipsos survey27 countries expressed their confidence in Joachim Löw's team, while 21 percent believe Brazil will win the title. England, a team known for struggling on the world stage, objectively has a greater chance of winning the title than people give them credit for.
Further infographics can be found at Statista