{"id":258007,"date":"2018-07-12T06:03:29","date_gmt":"2018-07-12T04:03:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/&amp;&amp;preview_id=258007"},"modified":"2018-07-12T06:03:29","modified_gmt":"2018-07-12T04:03:29","slug":"predicting-the-unpredictable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/","title":{"rendered":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>32 Nationen werden in den n\u00e4chsten viereinhalb Wochen bei der FIFA Fussball-Weltmeisterschaft in Russland gegeneinander antreten, aber nur eine Mannschaft wird als Sieger nach Hause fliegen. Und obwohl jeder Fan\/Experte eine Meinung dar\u00fcber hat, wer am Ende gewinnen wird, liegt ein Gro\u00dfteil der Sch\u00f6nheit des Spiels in seiner Unvorhersehbarkeit. Fu\u00dfball &#8211; zumindest der, der heutzutage in Russland gespielt wird &#8211; ist ein notorisch torarmes Spiel (fragen Sie einfach die amerikanischen Sportfans nach dem Reiz eines torlosen Unentschiedens), und daher kann eine falsche Entscheidung, ein verlorener Ball oder eine ausgekugelte Schulter den Ausgang einer ganzen Saison oder eines Turniers entscheiden.<br \/>\nUm der Unberechenbarkeit des Spiels zu trotzen, haben Analysten von <a href=\"http:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/our-thinking\/pages\/world-cup-2018\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Goldman Sachs<\/a> ein ausgekl\u00fcgeltes statistisches Modell entwickelt, mit dem sie versuchen, Deutschlands Nachfolger als Weltmeister vorherzusagen. Nach ihrer Analyse, die sich auf 53 verschiedene Variablen st\u00fctzt, darunter Mannschaftsbewertungen, Spielerbewertungen, j\u00fcngste Leistungen und j\u00fcngste Leistungen der Gegner, ist Brasilien mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 18,5 Prozent der Favorit auf den Titelgewinn. Frankreich ist der zweitwahrscheinlichste Sieger mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 11,3 Prozent, gefolgt von Titelverteidiger Deutschland (10,7 Prozent).<br \/>\nWie die folgende Grafik zeigt, ist die Welt\u00f6ffentlichkeit anderer Meinung als das statistische Modell und h\u00e4lt Deutschland f\u00fcr den wahrscheinlichsten Weltmeister. 23 Prozent der rund 12.000 Befragten in einer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/ipsos-mori\/en-uk\/global-attitudes-towards-world-cup-2018-russia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ipsos-Umfragein<\/a>27 L\u00e4ndern sprachen der Mannschaft von Joachim L\u00f6w ihr Vertrauen aus, w\u00e4hrend 21 Prozent Brasilien den Titel zutrauen. England, eine Mannschaft, die daf\u00fcr bekannt ist, dass sie sich auf der Weltb\u00fchne abm\u00fcht, hat objektiv gesehen gr\u00f6\u00dfere Chancen auf den Titelgewinn, als die Leute ihnen zutrauen.<br \/>\n<a title=\"Infographic: Predicting the Unpredictable | Statista\" href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/chart\/14251\/world-cup-predictions\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"football\" style=\"width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width: 960px; -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;\" src=\"https:\/\/infographic.statista.com\/normal\/chartoftheday_14251_world_cup_predictions_n.jpg\" alt=\"Infographic: Predicting the Unpredictable | Statista\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\" \/><\/a> Further infographics can be found at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/chartoftheday\/\">Statista<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>32 Nationen werden in den n\u00e4chsten viereinhalb Wochen bei der FIFA Fussball-Weltmeisterschaft in Russland gegeneinander antreten, aber nur eine Mannschaft wird als Sieger nach Hause fliegen. Und obwohl jeder Fan\/Experte eine Meinung dar\u00fcber hat, wer am Ende gewinnen wird, liegt ein Gro\u00dfteil der Sch\u00f6nheit des Spiels in seiner Unvorhersehbarkeit. Fu\u00dfball &#8211; zumindest der, der heutzutage &#8230; <a title=\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen\">Read more<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":236626,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4181],"tags":[2840,1840],"class_list":["post-258007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-unsortiert","tag-deutschland","tag-russland","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-25"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - risawave.org<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - - risawave.org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - - risawave.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"risawave.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-07-12T04:03:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/infographic.statista.com\/normal\/chartoftheday_14251_world_cup_predictions_n.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":[\"Article\",\"BlogPosting\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a88d2a92d710b97d3eaaca6aa2a70fc4\"},\"headline\":\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-07-12T04:03:29+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":270,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/07\\\/statistics.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Deutschland\",\"Russland\"],\"articleSection\":[\"z-unsortiert\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2018\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/en\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/\",\"name\":\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - risawave.org\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/07\\\/statistics.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-07-12T04:03:29+00:00\",\"description\":\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - - risawave.org\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/07\\\/statistics.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/07\\\/statistics.png\",\"width\":854,\"height\":320,\"caption\":\"statistics\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Start\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"risawave.org\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":[\"Organization\",\"Place\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"risawave.org\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#local-main-organization-logo\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#local-main-organization-logo\"},\"telephone\":[\"015140530884\"],\"openingHoursSpecification\":[],\"email\":\"office@newrella.hk\",\"faxNumber\":\"newrella Limited\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a88d2a92d710b97d3eaaca6aa2a70fc4\",\"name\":\"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/en\\\/author\\\/sanjay-sauldie\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/predicting-the-unpredictable\\\/#local-main-organization-logo\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/Globales-logo-scaled-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/risawave.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/Globales-logo-scaled-1.png\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":2560,\"caption\":\"risawave.org\"}]}<\/script>\n<meta name=\"geo.placename\" content=\"\u8202\u574e\u89d2\" \/>\n<meta name=\"geo.region\" content=\"Hong Kong\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - risawave.org","description":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - - risawave.org","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen","og_description":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - - risawave.org","og_url":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/","og_site_name":"risawave.org","article_published_time":"2018-07-12T04:03:29+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/infographic.statista.com\/normal\/chartoftheday_14251_world_cup_predictions_n.jpg","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)","Estimated reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":["Article","BlogPosting"],"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/"},"author":{"name":"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)","@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/#\/schema\/person\/a88d2a92d710b97d3eaaca6aa2a70fc4"},"headline":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen","datePublished":"2018-07-12T04:03:29+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/"},"wordCount":270,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/statistics.png","keywords":["Deutschland","Russland"],"articleSection":["z-unsortiert"],"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#respond"]}],"copyrightYear":"2018","copyrightHolder":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/#organization"}},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/","url":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/","name":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - risawave.org","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/statistics.png","datePublished":"2018-07-12T04:03:29+00:00","description":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen - - risawave.org","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/statistics.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/statistics.png","width":854,"height":320,"caption":"statistics"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Start","item":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Das Unvorhersehbare vorhersagen"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/","name":"risawave.org","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":["Organization","Place"],"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/#organization","name":"risawave.org","url":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/","logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#local-main-organization-logo"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#local-main-organization-logo"},"telephone":["015140530884"],"openingHoursSpecification":[],"email":"office@newrella.hk","faxNumber":"newrella Limited"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/#\/schema\/person\/a88d2a92d710b97d3eaaca6aa2a70fc4","name":"Sanjay Sauldie (M.Sc.)","sameAs":["https:\/\/risawave.org"],"url":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/author\/sanjay-sauldie\/"},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/predicting-the-unpredictable\/#local-main-organization-logo","url":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Globales-logo-scaled-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Globales-logo-scaled-1.png","width":2560,"height":2560,"caption":"risawave.org"}]},"geo.placename":"\u8202\u574e\u89d2","geo.region":"Hong Kong"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=258007"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/258007\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/236626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=258007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=258007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/risawave.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=258007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}